Like most people I've swung this way and that on my voting intentions in the forthcoming EU Referendum. Over the past few weeks the quality of debate from both sides has degenerated from calmly expressed opinion through wild speculation to all out fear-mongering.
Do I believe a billion immigrants will storm into the UK if we remain within the EU? Not really.
Do I think house prices will collapse or mass unemployment follow our exit? Absolutely not.
Will working conditions revert back to the Victorian era and all employment rights workers have gained over the past century cease to exist should we leave? Give over. Stuffing small children up chimneys disappeared with coal fires and chamber pots.
Will opting out give us billions of extra funds to improve public services? Given the proclivity of politicians for squeezing the least benefit from the maximum investment I doubt we would see any change.
So... what do I believe?
I believe that no one really knows what will happen should we vote to leave the EU. There's a myriad of claims and counter-claims but the only real certainties are:
We are heading towards a Federal Europe.
Given we have waited 41 years to for this referendum it's unlikely we will ever have another.
I shall dismiss all the speculation and make my mind based upon whether I prefer to be part of a Federal Europe or an independent United Kingdom.
This Referendum is my last chance to influence the outcome.
Considering the idiotic statements made by politicians of all persuasions and the monumental blunders made by them in the past (Weapons of Mass Destruction, bank bonuses, pledging to reduce net immigration below 100,00 etc) I don't have any faith in political forecasts.
I suggest you make your own mind up based on your own beliefs.
If a Federal Europe is for you that's the way to go if not... get out now while you have the chance. Everything else is pure speculation.
The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of wilmslow.co.uk.
Comments
Here's what readers have had to say so far. Why not add your thoughts below.
This whole affair has turned into a megaphone shouting match; any thin veneer of Party solidarity shattered instantly, with slanging matches from all sides against members of their own parties. This shows just what a sham our party political system has turned into.
However if we turn the clock back to the time before we joined the EEC (a trading union we were told) we were already trading with Europe under the European Free Trade Agreement (EFTA) and most people thought the new agreement was merely an enlargement of an already mutually beneficial trading arrangement, with a small number of other European countries- bear in mind the big threat in those days was from the Soviet Union and its satellites states.
Travel in Europe was problem-free , and the UK prospered with a vibrant fishing industry and UK manufacturing industries.
Fast forward to to-day and we are threated among other things that if we opt out we shall witness the demise of the NHS - as if the UK were not already spending a smaller percentage of Gross Domestic Product on the NHS than the amount spent on health care in about every other country in the EU!
Our over-crowded island has managed in the past to absorb millions of people fleeing persecution and prejudice but no one expected so many economic migrants from the EU to want to work in the UK, and while they may have `grown` the economy they have also placed great strain on housing, schools and the NHS. Can we continue absorb unknown numbers of incomers ?
Of course many UK citizens have chosen to live in Europe, but what we do not know if how much money leaves the UK by way of pensions paid to ex-pats, child allowances and cash remitted by EU citizens living here, and how much money the UK receives in return from ex-pats etc. remitting cash to the UK, and what impact this has, if any , on our economy .
As the UK, has lost much of its former manufacturing capacity and now relies heavily on convoluted financial services, without far more reliable unbiased information can any of us really understand the consequences of opting in or out ?
Your various views are interesting, but do you all realise that the biggest problem of the EU has been brushed under the carpet, namely we have Habeus Corpus, which means if the police lock a suspect up, they either have to charge them within 3 days or release them. Only the UK and the Irish Republic have these. When Tony Blair was PM, he wanted to get rid of this, but was stopped. All the countries of the Eu have Corpus Juris system, which means there is no time limit on a similar situation in the EU. Look at recent cases on the Internet about this. I am surprised that all the rhetoric in this debate, this has been hidden from us.
As the Eu court is supreme, think what could happen.
When expert economists, leading business managers, prize-winning scientists, etc., issue warnings of the likely consequences of a "Brexit" their response is to say "scaremongering". Which of the regular warnings issued by Government bodies (e.g., on road traffic, severe weather, terrorism, health risks, infectious diseases) do they imagine constitute scaremongering, and which of them provide reasonable people with information on problems we are likely to encounter in the absence of strategies to avoid them?
Is our future is to be determined by voters who 'know what they believe'
and whose motto is "Don't confuse me with the facts"?
Vic statest "I believe that no one really knows what will happen should we vote to leave the EU. There's a myriad of claims and counter-claims"
I agree with that belief.
He then goes one to say "but the only real certainties are: We are heading towards a Federal Europe."
This is where our opinions and beliefs part company
I too, like Vic, do not want a Federal Europe, but my opinin is that we are not heading towards a Federal Europe. I will concede that there are certain parties in the EU who want a Federal Europe and are trying to facilitate this through EU Law. However, it does not mean that it will happen.
I hope and believe that if an EU treaty is every proposed that would enshrine the goal of a Federal European State into EU Law, then a Prime Minster of the UK would never sign it
However, if they did, I believe that there would be good and reasonable grounds for them to be arrested and charge with “HIGH TREASON”.
And then, in time be dealt with accordingly by one or all of the separate justice systems of England and Wales; Scotland and Northern Ireland. Hence rendeering the signing of the treaty null and void.
Previously, I wrote ''Is our future is to be determined by voters who 'know what they believe' and whose motto is 'Don't confuse me with the facts'? ''
In a democratic society everyone is entitled to their viewpoint and beliefs.
(Some definitions: "Opinion" - [1] a view or judgement formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge; [2] a statement of advice by an expert.) That said, in a matter that seriously affects the whole community, it seems appropriate to take account of known facts and expert opinion when forming one's own opinion prior to voting. (An "expert" should know, and be open about, what they do not know -- as well as what they do know!)
As in 'Waging war re Weapons of Mass Destruction?'
Sorry Mr Baker, not trying to belittle your contribution, but after the political establishment dragged us into war on completely false information then made Mr Blair our 'Peace Envoy' I lost faith.
When I wrote "When expert economists, leading business managers, prize-winning scientists, etc., issue warnings of the likely consequences of a 'Brexit' their response is to say 'scaremongering' ", I was not referring to so-called information supplied by Mr Blair, I was referring to the opinion of people who are EXPERTS in the area on which they comment. It seems just a little arrogant to assume that everyone making a statement in public is a liar because we have been misled by some prominent politicians in the past. I forget who it was who wrote " If even the Devil tells me that 2+2=4, I shall believe it."
Some sources (like the "i" newspaper, cost 40p on a weekday) have been supplying good summaries of what the EXIT and REMAIN campaigns have been claiming -- and contrasting and comparing these with more independent assessments. As I asked earlier, "Is our future is to be determined by voters who 'know what they believe' and whose motto is 'Don't confuse me with the facts' ?"
Were they not able to articulate the risks of leaving at the start of the campaign? Or have the remain campaign lost control of the PR wizards. Irritating & desperate!
With regards to so called "EXPERTS". Use the term loosely....most not only failed to predict the banking crisis....but caused it! who was in charge in the preceding years? poor governance? The same so called "EXPERTS" decided it was far too embarrassing to endure a great depression. The results of their ineptitude....resolved with a policy of quantitative easing! ...... suggest that to your bank manager when you miss manage your financial affairs!